Where we may be wrong and why

There are a couple of places where I am a little concerned with where we are going against long-term trends, but it is at such a granular level, it isn't statiscally significant.

That said, I would be remiss if I didn't tell you about these.

First, no 5 seeds to the Sweet 16.  That hasn't happened since 1992 and it has only happened 8% of the time.

Secondly, We have 2 6 seeds.  2 or more 6 seeds have happened 40% of the time.  One 6 seed has happened 10 out of 25 times.

Lastly, two 12 seeds has only happened once. A 12 and 13 has only happened once as well, so watch those 4-13 and 5-12 in the South and West like we are playing it.

Okay, now let's talk about some of our individual picks.  One that that has caught our attention is that no team played their conference tourney in a dome, so this may adversely affect teams that rely heavily on the 3 pointer.  Look at Duke.  They really depend on the 3, and in 2001 their conference tourney was in the Georgia Dome and they won the NCAA (playing in Minneapolis).

Kentucky will play in the Carrier Dome which is a different kind of dome, but only 22% of their points come from 3.  In contrast, Wisconsin gets 34% of their points from 3.  This introduces higher risk with the Wisconsin pick.  WVU gets 28.5% of their points from 3.

In the South (Houston), Duke gets 29.1% of their points from 3, compared to 28% for Villanova and 27.5% for Baylor.

Salt Lake (Syracuse, K State, BYU) is not in a dome.