Evaluating Opportunities by seed 11-15

3 seeds win 85% of their games, but the probability that they all win is only 48%! The probability that 3 will win is 92%.

The most likely upset is Montana over New Mexico, but we give that < 25% of happening.

4 seeds win 79% of their games, but they all win only 28% of the time.

Vanderbilt is vulnerable to Murray State.  Murray State has a great FG% offense and defense.
We feel that Purdue is vulnerable to Siena.   The Hummel injury and this being Siena's third straight appearance works for them.


5 seeds win 66% of their games, but they all win only 12% of the time.

Utah State has a better efficiency rating that Texas A&M, but Utah State not making the tournament last year works against them.

UTEP has the 5-12 Mid-Major vs. Mid-Major rule working for them.

Cornell is very efficient, but this is a first time appearance and they don't compare to Temple's Efficiency

6 seeds win 69% of their games, but they all win only 20% of the time. All the 11 seeds win only 4% of the time.

We feel that the 11 seeds are very strong relative to the 6 seeds and there will be multiple 11 seeds likely winning.  This is the order that we prioritize the 11 seeds:

1) Old Dominion:  Better efficiency - we are picking this upset straight up.
2) Marquette-Washington:  Very close efficiency
3) Minnesota-Xavier:  Very close efficiency
4) Tenn-SD State:  Tenn has the best efficiency delta, and now SD plays on Thursday on the East Coast.

More later on the 7-10 and  8-9 matchups.

7 seeds win 64% of their games, but they all win only 12% of the time. All the 10 seeds win only 4% of the time.  8 seeds win 46% of their games, but they all win only 8% of the time. Interesting enough, all the 9 seeds win 16% of the time, meaning it is twice as likely that all the 9 seeds will win than all the 8 seeds.