The modeling begins

Here are the toughest games to model:

Midwest:  Surprisingly, none.
West:  Butler(5) vs. UTEP (12), Xavier (6) vs. Minnesota(11), BYU(7) vs. Florida (10)
East:  Missouri (10) vs. Clemson(7), Marquette (6) vs. Washington (11)
South:  Utah State (12) vs. Texas A&M (5), Purdue(4) vs. Siena(13), St. Mary's (10) vs. Richmond (7), Baylor vs. Villanova.

Couple of other things:

(1) The initial run shows only 3 first round upsets (Old Dominion, Utah State, and Siena;  Siena is based on adjusted stats for Purdue, which is iffy).  That is low, but we still have 3 more things to do before finalizing the bracket.  Recall we don't count 7-10 or 8-9 games as upsets.  For those match-ups.  We like N. Iowa, Florida State as the 9 seed picks and Ga Tech as a 10 pick with lots to reconcile for the 7-10 games.
(2) If you are looking for a 12 or 13 to make the Sweet 16, focus your efforts on the West and South.  The West in that pod only has one major team (Vandy).  The South has a very under-rated Utah State vs. a very over-rated Texas A&M and an injured Purdue vs. perennial Siena who beat Ohio State last year.
(3) How tired will St. Mary's be against Richmond?  San Diego St. vs. Tennessee?  Both play in Providence on Thursday.  Likely, one of those teams will be playing at 9am local after a LONG plane ride.
(4) No conference tournament was played in a dome this year.
(5) Baylor could be playing in Houston.
(6) Villanova is the only team with a chance of repeating to the Final 4 according to our models.
(7) West Virginia did not play at Syracuse this year.

Model should be finished tonight.