Here is our preliminary list. Should be fun to watch this change throughout the season.
Duke, Maryland, Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Illinois, Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma, Kentucky, Florida, West Virginia, Georgetown, Villanova
Friday, November 19, 2010
Thursday, March 18, 2010
NIT Games Impact NCAA Model
We have seen some strong shifts in the model based on the first two nights of the NCAA.
First, the CAA and the A-10 are looking stronger.
Secondly, the MWC, Big Sky, Pac-10, Big East, and Big Ten are looking weaker.
By default, the Big 12 and SEC have moved up in many head-to-head match-ups.
BYU-Kansas State: now leans towards Kansas State. This does have ramifications on our Elite 8. Xavier is now in play to make the Elite 8 based on over-ride rules, rather than BYU.
Texas A&M has not surpassed Utah State in our models, but they are now much stronger against them. Easily the closest game in our model. If you are in Vegas, take the underdog regardless.
Vanderbilt is also looking stronger against Murray State, but this was an over-ride pick originally. We still like Vanderbilt head-to-head, but the long term bracket trends likes Murray State.
First, the CAA and the A-10 are looking stronger.
Secondly, the MWC, Big Sky, Pac-10, Big East, and Big Ten are looking weaker.
By default, the Big 12 and SEC have moved up in many head-to-head match-ups.
BYU-Kansas State: now leans towards Kansas State. This does have ramifications on our Elite 8. Xavier is now in play to make the Elite 8 based on over-ride rules, rather than BYU.
Texas A&M has not surpassed Utah State in our models, but they are now much stronger against them. Easily the closest game in our model. If you are in Vegas, take the underdog regardless.
Vanderbilt is also looking stronger against Murray State, but this was an over-ride pick originally. We still like Vanderbilt head-to-head, but the long term bracket trends likes Murray State.
The Eyeball Test - Where the models know, but you believe differently
We've been examining the output of the models and figuring out where the blaring opportunities are. We found a few.
BYU-Kansas State: It is really tough to pick BYU when K State will be playing in their own conference and you have such a strong SoS. BYU is stronger on paper, and the models need 1 mid-major in the elite 8. BYU is easily the best team to fit that need, given their productivity and they are playing in Salt Lake City.
Texas A&M-Utah State: Another Big 12 team against another team from Utah. Utah State did beat Ohio State a few years ago. Texas A&M's losses are all against legit teams for the most part.
Wisconsin-Kentucky: I really don't think this is much of a stretch, but the % of points from 3 from Wisconsin have to make you worry about Wisconsin picks.
ODU-Notre Dame: Which Notre Dame team shows up? The re-invented one since Luke's injury?
Duke-Villanova-Baylor: There are several model conflicts here. Duke is the best team on paper, but Baylor playing in Houston and Villanova's recent success make this the highest leverage pick in the tourney. Get this right, and you are in good shape. Miss it, and it could cost you money.
The only thing we've learned from the NIT is that you can expect the A-10 to do well.
BYU-Kansas State: It is really tough to pick BYU when K State will be playing in their own conference and you have such a strong SoS. BYU is stronger on paper, and the models need 1 mid-major in the elite 8. BYU is easily the best team to fit that need, given their productivity and they are playing in Salt Lake City.
Texas A&M-Utah State: Another Big 12 team against another team from Utah. Utah State did beat Ohio State a few years ago. Texas A&M's losses are all against legit teams for the most part.
Wisconsin-Kentucky: I really don't think this is much of a stretch, but the % of points from 3 from Wisconsin have to make you worry about Wisconsin picks.
ODU-Notre Dame: Which Notre Dame team shows up? The re-invented one since Luke's injury?
Duke-Villanova-Baylor: There are several model conflicts here. Duke is the best team on paper, but Baylor playing in Houston and Villanova's recent success make this the highest leverage pick in the tourney. Get this right, and you are in good shape. Miss it, and it could cost you money.
The only thing we've learned from the NIT is that you can expect the A-10 to do well.
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
Where we may be wrong and why
There are a couple of places where I am a little concerned with where we are going against long-term trends, but it is at such a granular level, it isn't statiscally significant.
That said, I would be remiss if I didn't tell you about these.
First, no 5 seeds to the Sweet 16. That hasn't happened since 1992 and it has only happened 8% of the time.
Secondly, We have 2 6 seeds. 2 or more 6 seeds have happened 40% of the time. One 6 seed has happened 10 out of 25 times.
Lastly, two 12 seeds has only happened once. A 12 and 13 has only happened once as well, so watch those 4-13 and 5-12 in the South and West like we are playing it.
Okay, now let's talk about some of our individual picks. One that that has caught our attention is that no team played their conference tourney in a dome, so this may adversely affect teams that rely heavily on the 3 pointer. Look at Duke. They really depend on the 3, and in 2001 their conference tourney was in the Georgia Dome and they won the NCAA (playing in Minneapolis).
Kentucky will play in the Carrier Dome which is a different kind of dome, but only 22% of their points come from 3. In contrast, Wisconsin gets 34% of their points from 3. This introduces higher risk with the Wisconsin pick. WVU gets 28.5% of their points from 3.
In the South (Houston), Duke gets 29.1% of their points from 3, compared to 28% for Villanova and 27.5% for Baylor.
Salt Lake (Syracuse, K State, BYU) is not in a dome.
That said, I would be remiss if I didn't tell you about these.
First, no 5 seeds to the Sweet 16. That hasn't happened since 1992 and it has only happened 8% of the time.
Secondly, We have 2 6 seeds. 2 or more 6 seeds have happened 40% of the time. One 6 seed has happened 10 out of 25 times.
Lastly, two 12 seeds has only happened once. A 12 and 13 has only happened once as well, so watch those 4-13 and 5-12 in the South and West like we are playing it.
Okay, now let's talk about some of our individual picks. One that that has caught our attention is that no team played their conference tourney in a dome, so this may adversely affect teams that rely heavily on the 3 pointer. Look at Duke. They really depend on the 3, and in 2001 their conference tourney was in the Georgia Dome and they won the NCAA (playing in Minneapolis).
Kentucky will play in the Carrier Dome which is a different kind of dome, but only 22% of their points come from 3. In contrast, Wisconsin gets 34% of their points from 3. This introduces higher risk with the Wisconsin pick. WVU gets 28.5% of their points from 3.
In the South (Houston), Duke gets 29.1% of their points from 3, compared to 28% for Villanova and 27.5% for Baylor.
Salt Lake (Syracuse, K State, BYU) is not in a dome.
Prioritized Upsets - The Trees and The Forest
FIRST ROUND
1. Old Dominion (11) over Notre Dame
2. Utah State (12) over Texas A&M
3. Ga Tech (10) over Oklahoma State
4. Northern Iowa (9) over UNLV
5. Florida State (9) over Gonzaga
6. St. Mary's (10) over Richmond
7. Missouri (10) over Clemson
Couple of comments here. First, we are taking Richmond over St. Mary's due to the translongitudinal stress disorder we expect St. Mary's to experience. Second, this only looks at match-ups, it does not consider long-term bracket trends. Third, we really don't consider 8-9 and 7-10 matchups upsets. Fourth, Missouri over Clemson is based on rules other than pure productivity margin, but we agree with the over-ride.
When you consider "The Forest" and what your composite bracket should look like, we would add these games:
1. UTEP (12) over Butler
2. Murray State (13) over Vanderbilt
3. Siena (13) over Purdue
We are not calling upsets for these four games, but you should look at them closely.
1. BYU-Florida
2. Marquette-Washington
3. San Diego-Tennessee
4. Xavier-Minnesota
So, officially, we are picking 5 true upsets and 5 of the 9 and 10 seeds. We feel you should pick 3 to 5 upsets. We were originally going to go with 3, but the committee did such a poor seeding job, we are moving this number up to 5. Concentrating your upsets in to these two brackets will have the least impact on your overall bracket integrity and improve your chances of winning.
SECOND ROUND
1. Marquette (6) over New Mexico
2. Xavier (6) over Pitt
3. BYU (7) over Kansas State
Again, those are the pure upsets we are picking (not big fans of BYU over K-State). Here are the upsets you should consider based on long-term bracket trends.
1. Utah State over Siena/Purdue
2. UTEP over Murray State
3. Murray State over UTEP
Purdue is a wild card here. They could win 2 games or they could lose early. If you simply evaluate their games since Hummel got hurt, Siena should win. Siena has also been to the tourney the last 3 years and beat Ohio State in Dayton. Murray State looks great on paper. UTEP looks a little better, and if both of those teams win their first round game, you won't lose any points here, but could go up big on your competition.
THIRD ROUND
1. Wisconsin (4) over Kentucky
2. BYU (7) over Xavier
BYU is playing in Salt Lake City and has better efficiency. We need one team from a mid-major to make our elite 8 based on long-term bracket trends. Wisconsin doesn't have the hype and the talent that Kentucky has, but they play a better brand of team basketball and the statistics support that. Wisconsin has been to a Final 4 before so that helps their cause. Also, Kentucky did not go to the tourney last year and there is only a 36% chance of a team that didn't go to the tourney last year to make the Final 4 the next year.
One other note. Baylor is statistically better than Villanova, and they are playing in Houston, but Villanova went to the Final 4 last year and was in the tourney last year, so the long-term bracket trends over-ride the statistics. This is a high leverage game if you enter multiple brackets.
ELITE 8
(4) Wisconsin over West Virginia
(2) Villanova over Duke
Watching Duke vs. Georgetown makes you think they will have issues with any Big East Team. They are fortunate to get one on a downward trajectory. Duke is the better team on paper, but the long-term bracket trends point us to Villanova. Wisconsin, surprisingly, is better than West Virginia in terms of productivity and they have many long-term bracket trends in their favor.
Championship: Kansas over Wisconsin
Later today, I will post about long-term bracket trends and how this year compares. The Final 4 and Elite 8 are nearly perfect with long-term trends. The Sweet 16 has all 4 1 seeds, 3 2 seeds, and 5 seeds lower than 6. For the first 2 rounds we show 34 games following seed (23 and 11). This number is slightly lower than trend so consider that when looking at our prioritized list and how deep to go.
1. Old Dominion (11) over Notre Dame
2. Utah State (12) over Texas A&M
3. Ga Tech (10) over Oklahoma State
4. Northern Iowa (9) over UNLV
5. Florida State (9) over Gonzaga
6. St. Mary's (10) over Richmond
7. Missouri (10) over Clemson
Couple of comments here. First, we are taking Richmond over St. Mary's due to the translongitudinal stress disorder we expect St. Mary's to experience. Second, this only looks at match-ups, it does not consider long-term bracket trends. Third, we really don't consider 8-9 and 7-10 matchups upsets. Fourth, Missouri over Clemson is based on rules other than pure productivity margin, but we agree with the over-ride.
When you consider "The Forest" and what your composite bracket should look like, we would add these games:
1. UTEP (12) over Butler
2. Murray State (13) over Vanderbilt
3. Siena (13) over Purdue
We are not calling upsets for these four games, but you should look at them closely.
1. BYU-Florida
2. Marquette-Washington
3. San Diego-Tennessee
4. Xavier-Minnesota
So, officially, we are picking 5 true upsets and 5 of the 9 and 10 seeds. We feel you should pick 3 to 5 upsets. We were originally going to go with 3, but the committee did such a poor seeding job, we are moving this number up to 5. Concentrating your upsets in to these two brackets will have the least impact on your overall bracket integrity and improve your chances of winning.
SECOND ROUND
1. Marquette (6) over New Mexico
2. Xavier (6) over Pitt
3. BYU (7) over Kansas State
Again, those are the pure upsets we are picking (not big fans of BYU over K-State). Here are the upsets you should consider based on long-term bracket trends.
1. Utah State over Siena/Purdue
2. UTEP over Murray State
3. Murray State over UTEP
Purdue is a wild card here. They could win 2 games or they could lose early. If you simply evaluate their games since Hummel got hurt, Siena should win. Siena has also been to the tourney the last 3 years and beat Ohio State in Dayton. Murray State looks great on paper. UTEP looks a little better, and if both of those teams win their first round game, you won't lose any points here, but could go up big on your competition.
THIRD ROUND
1. Wisconsin (4) over Kentucky
2. BYU (7) over Xavier
BYU is playing in Salt Lake City and has better efficiency. We need one team from a mid-major to make our elite 8 based on long-term bracket trends. Wisconsin doesn't have the hype and the talent that Kentucky has, but they play a better brand of team basketball and the statistics support that. Wisconsin has been to a Final 4 before so that helps their cause. Also, Kentucky did not go to the tourney last year and there is only a 36% chance of a team that didn't go to the tourney last year to make the Final 4 the next year.
One other note. Baylor is statistically better than Villanova, and they are playing in Houston, but Villanova went to the Final 4 last year and was in the tourney last year, so the long-term bracket trends over-ride the statistics. This is a high leverage game if you enter multiple brackets.
ELITE 8
(4) Wisconsin over West Virginia
(2) Villanova over Duke
Watching Duke vs. Georgetown makes you think they will have issues with any Big East Team. They are fortunate to get one on a downward trajectory. Duke is the better team on paper, but the long-term bracket trends point us to Villanova. Wisconsin, surprisingly, is better than West Virginia in terms of productivity and they have many long-term bracket trends in their favor.
Championship: Kansas over Wisconsin
Later today, I will post about long-term bracket trends and how this year compares. The Final 4 and Elite 8 are nearly perfect with long-term trends. The Sweet 16 has all 4 1 seeds, 3 2 seeds, and 5 seeds lower than 6. For the first 2 rounds we show 34 games following seed (23 and 11). This number is slightly lower than trend so consider that when looking at our prioritized list and how deep to go.
Monday, March 15, 2010
Models see only 4 Final Four Combinations Possible
From Most Likely to Least Likely:
Kansas, Syracuse, Wisconsin, Villanova: Combined Seed (8), Combined RPI (38) - two from one conference and one team from last year's Final 4
Kansas, Kansas State, Wisconsin, Duke: Combined Seed (8), Combined RPI (31) - two from one conference
Kansas, Syracuse, Wisconsin, Baylor: Combined Seed (9), Combined RPI (36)
Kansas, Syracuse, WVU, Duke: Combined Seed (5), Combined RPI (13)
Kansas, Syracuse, Wisconsin, Villanova: Combined Seed (8), Combined RPI (38) - two from one conference and one team from last year's Final 4
Kansas, Kansas State, Wisconsin, Duke: Combined Seed (8), Combined RPI (31) - two from one conference
Kansas, Syracuse, Wisconsin, Baylor: Combined Seed (9), Combined RPI (36)
Kansas, Syracuse, WVU, Duke: Combined Seed (5), Combined RPI (13)
Evaluating Opportunities by seed 11-15
3 seeds win 85% of their games, but the probability that they all win is only 48%! The probability that 3 will win is 92%.
The most likely upset is Montana over New Mexico, but we give that < 25% of happening.
4 seeds win 79% of their games, but they all win only 28% of the time.
Vanderbilt is vulnerable to Murray State. Murray State has a great FG% offense and defense.
We feel that Purdue is vulnerable to Siena. The Hummel injury and this being Siena's third straight appearance works for them.
5 seeds win 66% of their games, but they all win only 12% of the time.
Utah State has a better efficiency rating that Texas A&M, but Utah State not making the tournament last year works against them.
UTEP has the 5-12 Mid-Major vs. Mid-Major rule working for them.
Cornell is very efficient, but this is a first time appearance and they don't compare to Temple's Efficiency
6 seeds win 69% of their games, but they all win only 20% of the time. All the 11 seeds win only 4% of the time.
We feel that the 11 seeds are very strong relative to the 6 seeds and there will be multiple 11 seeds likely winning. This is the order that we prioritize the 11 seeds:
1) Old Dominion: Better efficiency - we are picking this upset straight up.
2) Marquette-Washington: Very close efficiency
3) Minnesota-Xavier: Very close efficiency
4) Tenn-SD State: Tenn has the best efficiency delta, and now SD plays on Thursday on the East Coast.
More later on the 7-10 and 8-9 matchups.
7 seeds win 64% of their games, but they all win only 12% of the time. All the 10 seeds win only 4% of the time. 8 seeds win 46% of their games, but they all win only 8% of the time. Interesting enough, all the 9 seeds win 16% of the time, meaning it is twice as likely that all the 9 seeds will win than all the 8 seeds.
The most likely upset is Montana over New Mexico, but we give that < 25% of happening.
4 seeds win 79% of their games, but they all win only 28% of the time.
Vanderbilt is vulnerable to Murray State. Murray State has a great FG% offense and defense.
We feel that Purdue is vulnerable to Siena. The Hummel injury and this being Siena's third straight appearance works for them.
5 seeds win 66% of their games, but they all win only 12% of the time.
Utah State has a better efficiency rating that Texas A&M, but Utah State not making the tournament last year works against them.
UTEP has the 5-12 Mid-Major vs. Mid-Major rule working for them.
Cornell is very efficient, but this is a first time appearance and they don't compare to Temple's Efficiency
6 seeds win 69% of their games, but they all win only 20% of the time. All the 11 seeds win only 4% of the time.
We feel that the 11 seeds are very strong relative to the 6 seeds and there will be multiple 11 seeds likely winning. This is the order that we prioritize the 11 seeds:
1) Old Dominion: Better efficiency - we are picking this upset straight up.
2) Marquette-Washington: Very close efficiency
3) Minnesota-Xavier: Very close efficiency
4) Tenn-SD State: Tenn has the best efficiency delta, and now SD plays on Thursday on the East Coast.
More later on the 7-10 and 8-9 matchups.
7 seeds win 64% of their games, but they all win only 12% of the time. All the 10 seeds win only 4% of the time. 8 seeds win 46% of their games, but they all win only 8% of the time. Interesting enough, all the 9 seeds win 16% of the time, meaning it is twice as likely that all the 9 seeds will win than all the 8 seeds.
The modeling begins
Here are the toughest games to model:
Midwest: Surprisingly, none.
West: Butler(5) vs. UTEP (12), Xavier (6) vs. Minnesota(11), BYU(7) vs. Florida (10)
East: Missouri (10) vs. Clemson(7), Marquette (6) vs. Washington (11)
South: Utah State (12) vs. Texas A&M (5), Purdue(4) vs. Siena(13), St. Mary's (10) vs. Richmond (7), Baylor vs. Villanova.
Couple of other things:
(1) The initial run shows only 3 first round upsets (Old Dominion, Utah State, and Siena; Siena is based on adjusted stats for Purdue, which is iffy). That is low, but we still have 3 more things to do before finalizing the bracket. Recall we don't count 7-10 or 8-9 games as upsets. For those match-ups. We like N. Iowa, Florida State as the 9 seed picks and Ga Tech as a 10 pick with lots to reconcile for the 7-10 games.
(2) If you are looking for a 12 or 13 to make the Sweet 16, focus your efforts on the West and South. The West in that pod only has one major team (Vandy). The South has a very under-rated Utah State vs. a very over-rated Texas A&M and an injured Purdue vs. perennial Siena who beat Ohio State last year.
(3) How tired will St. Mary's be against Richmond? San Diego St. vs. Tennessee? Both play in Providence on Thursday. Likely, one of those teams will be playing at 9am local after a LONG plane ride.
(4) No conference tournament was played in a dome this year.
(5) Baylor could be playing in Houston.
(6) Villanova is the only team with a chance of repeating to the Final 4 according to our models.
(7) West Virginia did not play at Syracuse this year.
Model should be finished tonight.
Midwest: Surprisingly, none.
West: Butler(5) vs. UTEP (12), Xavier (6) vs. Minnesota(11), BYU(7) vs. Florida (10)
East: Missouri (10) vs. Clemson(7), Marquette (6) vs. Washington (11)
South: Utah State (12) vs. Texas A&M (5), Purdue(4) vs. Siena(13), St. Mary's (10) vs. Richmond (7), Baylor vs. Villanova.
Couple of other things:
(1) The initial run shows only 3 first round upsets (Old Dominion, Utah State, and Siena; Siena is based on adjusted stats for Purdue, which is iffy). That is low, but we still have 3 more things to do before finalizing the bracket. Recall we don't count 7-10 or 8-9 games as upsets. For those match-ups. We like N. Iowa, Florida State as the 9 seed picks and Ga Tech as a 10 pick with lots to reconcile for the 7-10 games.
(2) If you are looking for a 12 or 13 to make the Sweet 16, focus your efforts on the West and South. The West in that pod only has one major team (Vandy). The South has a very under-rated Utah State vs. a very over-rated Texas A&M and an injured Purdue vs. perennial Siena who beat Ohio State last year.
(3) How tired will St. Mary's be against Richmond? San Diego St. vs. Tennessee? Both play in Providence on Thursday. Likely, one of those teams will be playing at 9am local after a LONG plane ride.
(4) No conference tournament was played in a dome this year.
(5) Baylor could be playing in Houston.
(6) Villanova is the only team with a chance of repeating to the Final 4 according to our models.
(7) West Virginia did not play at Syracuse this year.
Model should be finished tonight.
Monday, March 8, 2010
Our Models on Joe Lunardi's 3/8 Bracket
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
Sweet 16
(1) Kansas
(12) Ga Tech
(3) Pitt
(2) Ohio State
(1) Kentucky
(5) Maryland
(3) Michigan State
(2) West Virginia
(1) Duke
(5) Baylor
(3) Villanova
(7) Missouri
(1) Syracuse
(4) Wisconsin
(6) Georgetown
(2) Kansas State
1 seeds: 4
2 seeds: 3
3 seeds: 3
4 seeds: 1
5 seeds: 2
6 seeds: 1
7 seeds: 1
12 seeds: 1
52 cumulative seed total.
Elite 8: Kansas over Ohio State, Maryland over West Virginia, Duke over Missouri, Wisconsin over Kansas State (cumulative seeds = 24)
Championship: Kansas over Duke
Sweet 16
(1) Kansas
(12) Ga Tech
(3) Pitt
(2) Ohio State
(1) Kentucky
(5) Maryland
(3) Michigan State
(2) West Virginia
(1) Duke
(5) Baylor
(3) Villanova
(7) Missouri
(1) Syracuse
(4) Wisconsin
(6) Georgetown
(2) Kansas State
1 seeds: 4
2 seeds: 3
3 seeds: 3
4 seeds: 1
5 seeds: 2
6 seeds: 1
7 seeds: 1
12 seeds: 1
52 cumulative seed total.
Elite 8: Kansas over Ohio State, Maryland over West Virginia, Duke over Missouri, Wisconsin over Kansas State (cumulative seeds = 24)
Championship: Kansas over Duke
8 teams you should pick to your Sweet 16
Based on our rules-based decision engine, these teams look to be safe picks for your Sweet 16. Of course, there could be conflicts (these teams could play each other):
Kansas
Duke
Kentucky
Syracuse
Villanova
Wisconsin
Georgetown
Maryland
These teams are still on the radar, but aren't "safe" yet: Michigan State, Texas, Oklahoma State, Ohio State, and Louisville.
Kansas
Duke
Kentucky
Syracuse
Villanova
Wisconsin
Georgetown
Maryland
These teams are still on the radar, but aren't "safe" yet: Michigan State, Texas, Oklahoma State, Ohio State, and Louisville.
Monday, March 1, 2010
Updated Final 4 Projections
Syracuse over Kansas is the current pick for the Championship game.
The Final 4 candidates:
Syracuse
Kansas
Duke
Kentucky
Villanova
Georgetown
Wisconsin
with Michigan State, Ohio State, Maryland, and Texas just on the outside.
Duke has caught our attention with their offensive rebounding and we want to figure out why this is occurring.
The Final 4 candidates:
Syracuse
Kansas
Duke
Kentucky
Villanova
Georgetown
Wisconsin
with Michigan State, Ohio State, Maryland, and Texas just on the outside.
Duke has caught our attention with their offensive rebounding and we want to figure out why this is occurring.
Friday, February 26, 2010
When do I pick a 12 over a 5 seed? Part 1
Whenever a 12 seed is from a major conference and the 5 seed is from a mid-major, take the 12 seed.
The 12 seed is undefeated in this scenario going back to the last major conference re-alignment in 1991.
We are currently looking at other rules. One that has our attention is when a major plays against another major and the one major plays in the finals of their conference tournament (Florida State last year, Syracuse the year they lost to Texas A&M in Gerry McNamara's senior year).
We'll let you know what we find.
The 12 seed is undefeated in this scenario going back to the last major conference re-alignment in 1991.
We are currently looking at other rules. One that has our attention is when a major plays against another major and the one major plays in the finals of their conference tournament (Florida State last year, Syracuse the year they lost to Texas A&M in Gerry McNamara's senior year).
We'll let you know what we find.
The Make-up of an Elite 8
Since the pod system was created in 2002, the advantage for the higher seeds has been staggering. Now let's take this a step further. Here is the make-up of a typical Elite 8.
Expect at least 3 one seeds.
Expect at least 6 teams to come from teams that have been to the Final 4 since 1985.
Expect one mid-major.
Expect one team that does none of the above (Missouri last year).
Expect 7 teams to have an RPI below 22 (last year, the highest RPI was 13). The last team's RPI will be below 54 and more likely to be between 23-38.
So the question becomes, who are those outlier teams that may crash the party. Here is the short list outside of teams that I have mentioned in the Final 4 posts:
Missouri
Maryland
BYU
West Virginia
Florida
Ga Tech
Butler
Expect at least 3 one seeds.
Expect at least 6 teams to come from teams that have been to the Final 4 since 1985.
Expect one mid-major.
Expect one team that does none of the above (Missouri last year).
Expect 7 teams to have an RPI below 22 (last year, the highest RPI was 13). The last team's RPI will be below 54 and more likely to be between 23-38.
So the question becomes, who are those outlier teams that may crash the party. Here is the short list outside of teams that I have mentioned in the Final 4 posts:
Missouri
Maryland
BYU
West Virginia
Florida
Ga Tech
Butler
Saturday, February 20, 2010
Final 4 Probabilities
One thing that I've been reading about is how that since 1991, only one team has won the tournament without making it to the previous year's tournament (Syracuse, 2003).
That got me thinking more about my Final 4 probabilities. Here is my collection:
Probability that:
Two teams are from one conference: 72%
One team from last year's Final 4: 72%
Probability that all the teams have an RPI <=22: 81%
Probability that all the teams are in the RPI Top 10: 19%
Probability that you will have 2 or more 1 seeds: 60%
Probability that you will have 3 or more 1 seeds: 16%
Here is what I just researched:
Probability that a team went to last year's tournament: 90%
Probability that one team in the Final 4 did not make last year's tournament: 36%
That last number is much higher than I would have anticipated. However, knowing that numbers gives some hope to Georgetown and Kentucky, but this information would probably make you lean towards a:
Syracuse, Kansas are probably in.
Villanova and Michigan State are leading candidates for the 3rd slot.
Duke and Wisconsin lead for the 4th slot. However, Duke is somewhat hurt by their high RPI. The top 3 teams in the RPI have only made it once in the past 16 years, while 2 of the top 3 have made it 50% of the time.
Kentucky and Georgetown are still in consideration.
That got me thinking more about my Final 4 probabilities. Here is my collection:
Probability that:
Two teams are from one conference: 72%
One team from last year's Final 4: 72%
Probability that all the teams have an RPI <=22: 81%
Probability that all the teams are in the RPI Top 10: 19%
Probability that you will have 2 or more 1 seeds: 60%
Probability that you will have 3 or more 1 seeds: 16%
Here is what I just researched:
Probability that a team went to last year's tournament: 90%
Probability that one team in the Final 4 did not make last year's tournament: 36%
That last number is much higher than I would have anticipated. However, knowing that numbers gives some hope to Georgetown and Kentucky, but this information would probably make you lean towards a:
Syracuse, Kansas are probably in.
Villanova and Michigan State are leading candidates for the 3rd slot.
Duke and Wisconsin lead for the 4th slot. However, Duke is somewhat hurt by their high RPI. The top 3 teams in the RPI have only made it once in the past 16 years, while 2 of the top 3 have made it 50% of the time.
Kentucky and Georgetown are still in consideration.
Monday, February 15, 2010
Our model selects the winners based on Joe Lunardi's current bracket
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology
Here is the bracket and our first round upsets from this bracket:
(9) Ga Tech over Illinois
(13) Utah State over Gonzaga* - game is in Spokane
(10) Florida State over Richmond
(11) Va Tech over Butler
(10) Dayton over N. Iowa
(11) Louisville over Texas A&M
(12) Marquette over Wake
Sweet 16
Kansas
Utah State
Baylor
Florida State
Syracuse
Texas
WVU
Purdue
Kentucky
Marquette
Wisconsin
Kansas State
Villanova
Vanderbilt
Ohio State
Duke
Elite 8
Kansas over Baylor
Syracuse over West Virginia
Wisconsin over Kentucky
Villanova over Ohio State- This one is 50-50, model is deadlocked. Nova gets the edge to support our 1 team from previous final 4 rule
Championship
Kansas over Syracuse
Here is the bracket and our first round upsets from this bracket:
(9) Ga Tech over Illinois
(13) Utah State over Gonzaga* - game is in Spokane
(10) Florida State over Richmond
(11) Va Tech over Butler
(10) Dayton over N. Iowa
(11) Louisville over Texas A&M
(12) Marquette over Wake
Sweet 16
Kansas
Utah State
Baylor
Florida State
Syracuse
Texas
WVU
Purdue
Kentucky
Marquette
Wisconsin
Kansas State
Villanova
Vanderbilt
Ohio State
Duke
Elite 8
Kansas over Baylor
Syracuse over West Virginia
Wisconsin over Kentucky
Villanova over Ohio State- This one is 50-50, model is deadlocked. Nova gets the edge to support our 1 team from previous final 4 rule
Championship
Kansas over Syracuse
Final 4 Models show significant shift
Kansas
Duke
Villanova
Syracuse
Kentucky
Georgetown
Wisconsin
with Michigan State, Ohio State, Ga Tech, and Texas just outside our criteria.
Let's look at the 7 teams.
Kansas is clearly the strongest team at this point. They seem to be a solid pick for the championship game. Duke's loss to Georgetown still looms big. Speaking of G-town, you have to like Monroe and Freeman, but you have to be skeptical with losses to South Florida and Rutgers. I question whether or not they can win 2 in a row.
Villanova has a huge advantage in our models having gone to last year's final 4 and having a superstar like Scottie Reynolds. At the same time, does Villanova beat American last year if that game isn't in Philadelphia?
Syracuse is probably the second strongest team behind Kansas.
Wisconsin is still playing well and I think they are a great dark horse pick for your bracket.
Kentucky - well they have Wall, Calipari, and rich boosters. I will let you make your own conclusions.
Duke
Villanova
Syracuse
Kentucky
Georgetown
Wisconsin
with Michigan State, Ohio State, Ga Tech, and Texas just outside our criteria.
Let's look at the 7 teams.
Kansas is clearly the strongest team at this point. They seem to be a solid pick for the championship game. Duke's loss to Georgetown still looms big. Speaking of G-town, you have to like Monroe and Freeman, but you have to be skeptical with losses to South Florida and Rutgers. I question whether or not they can win 2 in a row.
Villanova has a huge advantage in our models having gone to last year's final 4 and having a superstar like Scottie Reynolds. At the same time, does Villanova beat American last year if that game isn't in Philadelphia?
Syracuse is probably the second strongest team behind Kansas.
Wisconsin is still playing well and I think they are a great dark horse pick for your bracket.
Kentucky - well they have Wall, Calipari, and rich boosters. I will let you make your own conclusions.
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
Selecting Your Elite 8
There are several components that are involved in selecting the Elite 8 in my models. Let me review some of the simpler rules of thumb that aren't in the model.
1) Pick at least 2 of the RPI Top 3 for sure. These teams have at least a 63% chance of making the Elite 8 indivivdually, but only 5 out of 16 years have they all won in the same year. 14 of 16 years have 2 of these 3 made it.
2) Of the RPI Top 10, you typically get 4-7 of these teams of which we've just picked 3, so you need to pick 1 to 4 of these teams. Historically, 5 is the mode. We had 7 last year and the typical movement is 1, so we will go with 6. We need to pick 3 of the remaining 7 teams.
3) Pick only 1 mid major and make sure they aren't in the RPI Top 10.
4) 80% of the time, expect a 6 seed or higher to make it.
5) The cumulative seeds will fall between 18 and 34 with 80% confidence. We are expecting 22 to 28 right now.
6) It is equally as likely that there will be one team from last year's Elite 8 as there is 2 or more. Only twice has there not been a team from last year's elite 8 going back to 1986.
1) Pick at least 2 of the RPI Top 3 for sure. These teams have at least a 63% chance of making the Elite 8 indivivdually, but only 5 out of 16 years have they all won in the same year. 14 of 16 years have 2 of these 3 made it.
2) Of the RPI Top 10, you typically get 4-7 of these teams of which we've just picked 3, so you need to pick 1 to 4 of these teams. Historically, 5 is the mode. We had 7 last year and the typical movement is 1, so we will go with 6. We need to pick 3 of the remaining 7 teams.
3) Pick only 1 mid major and make sure they aren't in the RPI Top 10.
4) 80% of the time, expect a 6 seed or higher to make it.
5) The cumulative seeds will fall between 18 and 34 with 80% confidence. We are expecting 22 to 28 right now.
6) It is equally as likely that there will be one team from last year's Elite 8 as there is 2 or more. Only twice has there not been a team from last year's elite 8 going back to 1986.
Monday, February 8, 2010
Updated Models - No Repeat Final 4 Participant?
The models have been updated this morning. Here is our Final 4 short list:
1. Kansas
2. Kentucky
3. Duke
4. Syracuse
5. Georgetown
6. Wisconsin
7. Michigan State
8. Texas
9. Villanova
Now, the bottom 3 are on the brink of following off the list. Texas is currently 22nd in the RPI, our lower level threshold. Michigan State and Villanova, are nearly ready to fall off the short list, based on their on-the court productivity.
If that happens, we are down to 6. Duke doesn't pass the eye ball test with their lack of points in the pain. They are reaching our upper limit on % of points from 3.
If you believe that 2 teams will come from one conference and that conference is the Big East, you are looking at Georgetown and Syracuse. Kansas has our next strongest rating. That leaves the last slot a battle between Wisconsin and Kentucky.
1. Kansas
2. Kentucky
3. Duke
4. Syracuse
5. Georgetown
6. Wisconsin
7. Michigan State
8. Texas
9. Villanova
Now, the bottom 3 are on the brink of following off the list. Texas is currently 22nd in the RPI, our lower level threshold. Michigan State and Villanova, are nearly ready to fall off the short list, based on their on-the court productivity.
If that happens, we are down to 6. Duke doesn't pass the eye ball test with their lack of points in the pain. They are reaching our upper limit on % of points from 3.
If you believe that 2 teams will come from one conference and that conference is the Big East, you are looking at Georgetown and Syracuse. Kansas has our next strongest rating. That leaves the last slot a battle between Wisconsin and Kentucky.
Wednesday, February 3, 2010
Sweet 16 Segmentation
The Sweet 16 breakdown over the past 25 years looks like this:
There is a 92% chance of at least one 10 or higher seed in the Sweet 16. There is a 64% chance of 2 or more.
There is a 96% chance of at least one 5 to 7 seed. There is a 92% chance of at least 2. There is a 64% chance of at least 3. The mode is 5 (8 out of 25 years), but interestingly enough, only 8% of the time has there been 6 or more.
8 and 9 seeds making it to the Sweet 16 is very rare. It has only happened 40% of the time and only 8% of the time do 2 make it.
In aggregate, 60% of the time you will 5-7 teams that are a 5 seed or higher in your Sweet 16. 16% of the time you have 2-4, and 24% of the time you will have 8 or 9.
The current 80% confidence band is 4-8. When you look further at the change rate, last year we had 3 teams seeded 5th or lower make the Sweet 16. 84% of the time this number changes by 0 to 3 from the previous year. So that opens a window of 0 to 6.
I am looking to have 5 or 6 teams seeded 5th or lower in my Sweet 16. 1 or 2 will be a 10 seed or higher and 3 or 4 will be a 5-7 seed.
There is a 92% chance of at least one 10 or higher seed in the Sweet 16. There is a 64% chance of 2 or more.
There is a 96% chance of at least one 5 to 7 seed. There is a 92% chance of at least 2. There is a 64% chance of at least 3. The mode is 5 (8 out of 25 years), but interestingly enough, only 8% of the time has there been 6 or more.
8 and 9 seeds making it to the Sweet 16 is very rare. It has only happened 40% of the time and only 8% of the time do 2 make it.
In aggregate, 60% of the time you will 5-7 teams that are a 5 seed or higher in your Sweet 16. 16% of the time you have 2-4, and 24% of the time you will have 8 or 9.
The current 80% confidence band is 4-8. When you look further at the change rate, last year we had 3 teams seeded 5th or lower make the Sweet 16. 84% of the time this number changes by 0 to 3 from the previous year. So that opens a window of 0 to 6.
I am looking to have 5 or 6 teams seeded 5th or lower in my Sweet 16. 1 or 2 will be a 10 seed or higher and 3 or 4 will be a 5-7 seed.
NCAA Tournament closer to expanding to 96 teams - DON'T
The NCAA is showing their money greed again for the major conferences and they want to add 32 at-large teams to the tournament. This is a really bad idea for several reasons.
1. The regular season gets diluted even more.
2. The excitement of the tournament will be lost if brackets either (a) have to be turned in sooner, or (b) has less turnaround time after this new first round.
3. Most importantly, a 16 seed has never won. This either shows that the tournament has it perfect, or they need to get rid of automatic bids.
If you were to take the RPI from 2/2, and simply took the top 64 teams, 24 would come from mid-majors. If you used KenPom, you would have 21 teams.
Since the RPI originated in 1994, only three teams with an RPI higher than 96 have ever won an NCAA Tournament game. Only 14 teams with an RPI higher than 64 have won a NCAA Tournament game, and it has only happened in 8 years out of 16. It only has a 50-50 chance of happening. That seems like it is perfectly calibrated in its current state.
I would love to hear other thoughts on this...
1. The regular season gets diluted even more.
2. The excitement of the tournament will be lost if brackets either (a) have to be turned in sooner, or (b) has less turnaround time after this new first round.
3. Most importantly, a 16 seed has never won. This either shows that the tournament has it perfect, or they need to get rid of automatic bids.
If you were to take the RPI from 2/2, and simply took the top 64 teams, 24 would come from mid-majors. If you used KenPom, you would have 21 teams.
Since the RPI originated in 1994, only three teams with an RPI higher than 96 have ever won an NCAA Tournament game. Only 14 teams with an RPI higher than 64 have won a NCAA Tournament game, and it has only happened in 8 years out of 16. It only has a 50-50 chance of happening. That seems like it is perfectly calibrated in its current state.
I would love to hear other thoughts on this...
Monday, February 1, 2010
Updated Final 4 Projections
Here is my latest Final 4 Projections based on the rules I've generated from 25 years of NCAA Tournament history along with their latest RPI Ranking and (Joe Lunardi's current Bracketology Seed):
Villanova, 4 (1)
Michigan State, 10 (2)
Texas, 19 (2)
Kansas, 1 (1)
Duke, 5 (3)
Georgetown, 3 (2)
Syracuse, 2 (1)
Wisconsin, 13 (4)
Kentucky, 7 (1)
Villanova and/or Michigan State are highly likely to make the Final 4 as one team from last year's Final 4 typically makes it.
We are also expecting 2 teams from one conference.
We also expect the combined RPI to be between 26 and 44. This rules looks like it may be challenged on the lower limit based on current performance.
Lastly, we expect the cumulative seed total to fall between 6 and 11.
We have shifted our two teams from one conference from the Big 12 to the Big East. We believe that the Big East will have an easier path to accomplish this as Villanova will probably be in the East and Syracuse in the West. Kansas and Texas are likely to have to go through Kentucky, Duke, Michigan State, and Wisconsin in some capacity. Also, these teams will be playing in a dome so teams that rely too heavily on 3 pointers may be in for a rude awakening, unless they have played games in a dome earlier in the season.
Villanova, 4 (1)
Michigan State, 10 (2)
Texas, 19 (2)
Kansas, 1 (1)
Duke, 5 (3)
Georgetown, 3 (2)
Syracuse, 2 (1)
Wisconsin, 13 (4)
Kentucky, 7 (1)
Villanova and/or Michigan State are highly likely to make the Final 4 as one team from last year's Final 4 typically makes it.
We are also expecting 2 teams from one conference.
We also expect the combined RPI to be between 26 and 44. This rules looks like it may be challenged on the lower limit based on current performance.
Lastly, we expect the cumulative seed total to fall between 6 and 11.
We have shifted our two teams from one conference from the Big 12 to the Big East. We believe that the Big East will have an easier path to accomplish this as Villanova will probably be in the East and Syracuse in the West. Kansas and Texas are likely to have to go through Kentucky, Duke, Michigan State, and Wisconsin in some capacity. Also, these teams will be playing in a dome so teams that rely too heavily on 3 pointers may be in for a rude awakening, unless they have played games in a dome earlier in the season.
Wednesday, January 27, 2010
Is this the year an 8 or 9 seed makes the Sweet 16?
At least one 8 or 9 seed has a 40% probability of making the Sweet 16, based on the past 25 years, however, it hasn't happened since 2004 when 2 made it. Remember that the pod system was put in place in 2003.
Based on current RPI and AP Rankings and Kenpom Rankings mis-matches, keep an eye on Maryland. If they are an 8 or 9 seed, they may be worth taking a bet on.
Based on current RPI and AP Rankings and Kenpom Rankings mis-matches, keep an eye on Maryland. If they are an 8 or 9 seed, they may be worth taking a bet on.
100 Final 4 Spots, only 38 schools
Since college basketball added a shot clock and the 3 point line, the modern era of college basketball is commonly accepted to have started in 1985.
In 25 years, there have been 100 Final 4 spots, but only 38 schools have made it to the Final 4. This isn't an accident. Some schools care more. Just look at John Calipari.
One thing you should consider when selecting the teams in your bracket is this. Has the team been to a Final 4 before? This rule would have treated you well last year in the Sweet 16, only messing up with Oklahoma State-Pitt.
In 25 years, there have been 100 Final 4 spots, but only 38 schools have made it to the Final 4. This isn't an accident. Some schools care more. Just look at John Calipari.
One thing you should consider when selecting the teams in your bracket is this. Has the team been to a Final 4 before? This rule would have treated you well last year in the Sweet 16, only messing up with Oklahoma State-Pitt.
Tuesday, January 26, 2010
Final 4 Projections
My Final 4 comes from some very specific rules based on evaluating 25 years of NCAA Tournament History.
Right now, at least 3 and likely all 4 of the Final 4 teams will come from this list.
UConn
Syracuse
Villanova
Georgetown
Michigan State
Wisconsin
Kentucky
Kansas
Texas
While Texas looked dreadful playing up-tempo against UConn, I expect that they will play in Houston, which is a decisive advantage. Just ask Syracuse how much they liked playing in Albany in 2003 or George Mason how much they enjoyed playing in DC in 2006. The last time Texas made the Final 4, they had the luxury of playing their regional in state as well. Illinois beat Arizona in the Elite 8 in Chicago.
Right now, at least 3 and likely all 4 of the Final 4 teams will come from this list.
UConn
Syracuse
Villanova
Georgetown
Michigan State
Wisconsin
Kentucky
Kansas
Texas
While Texas looked dreadful playing up-tempo against UConn, I expect that they will play in Houston, which is a decisive advantage. Just ask Syracuse how much they liked playing in Albany in 2003 or George Mason how much they enjoyed playing in DC in 2006. The last time Texas made the Final 4, they had the luxury of playing their regional in state as well. Illinois beat Arizona in the Elite 8 in Chicago.
First Round Action: Can All the Higher Seeds win?
Many people look at the performance of seeds individually in the NCAA Tournament. However, before you look at that, it's equally important to understand how likely it is for ALL the respective seeds to win.
Look at this:
2 Seeds win 96% of their games. However, since 1985, the probability that they all win is 84%. It's happened every year since 2001, right before they went to the pod system.
3 seeds win 85% of their games, but the probability that they all win is only 48%! The probability that 3 will win is 92%.
4 seeds win 79% of their games, but they all win only 28% of the time.
5 seeds win 66% of their games, but they all win only 12% of the time.
6 seeds win 69% of their games, but they all win only 20% of the time. All the 11 seeds win only 4% of the time.
7 seeds win 64% of their games, but they all win only 12% of the time. All the 10 seeds win only 4% of the time.
8 seeds win 46% of their games, but they all win only 8% of the time. Interesting enough, all the 9 seeds win 16% of the time, meaning it is twice as likely that all the 9 seeds will win than all the 8 seeds.
We have looked at other probabilities like this and will share them in future postings.
Look at this:
2 Seeds win 96% of their games. However, since 1985, the probability that they all win is 84%. It's happened every year since 2001, right before they went to the pod system.
3 seeds win 85% of their games, but the probability that they all win is only 48%! The probability that 3 will win is 92%.
4 seeds win 79% of their games, but they all win only 28% of the time.
5 seeds win 66% of their games, but they all win only 12% of the time.
6 seeds win 69% of their games, but they all win only 20% of the time. All the 11 seeds win only 4% of the time.
7 seeds win 64% of their games, but they all win only 12% of the time. All the 10 seeds win only 4% of the time.
8 seeds win 46% of their games, but they all win only 8% of the time. Interesting enough, all the 9 seeds win 16% of the time, meaning it is twice as likely that all the 9 seeds will win than all the 8 seeds.
We have looked at other probabilities like this and will share them in future postings.
Monday, January 25, 2010
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