Is this the year an 8 or 9 seed makes the Sweet 16?

At least one  8 or 9 seed has a 40% probability of making the Sweet 16, based on the past 25 years, however, it hasn't happened since 2004 when 2 made it.  Remember that the pod system was put in place in 2003.

Based on current RPI and AP Rankings and Kenpom Rankings mis-matches, keep an eye on Maryland.  If they are an 8 or 9 seed, they may be worth taking a bet on.

100 Final 4 Spots, only 38 schools

Since college basketball added a shot clock and the 3 point line, the modern era of college basketball is commonly accepted to have started in 1985.

In 25 years, there have been 100 Final 4 spots, but only 38 schools have made it to the Final 4.  This isn't an accident.  Some schools care more.  Just look at John Calipari.

One thing you should consider when selecting the teams in your bracket is this.  Has the team been to a Final 4 before?  This rule would have treated you well last year in the Sweet 16, only messing up with Oklahoma State-Pitt.

Final 4 Projections

My Final 4 comes from some very specific rules based on evaluating 25 years of NCAA Tournament History.

Right now, at least 3 and likely all 4 of the Final 4 teams will come from this list.

UConn
Syracuse
Villanova
Georgetown
Michigan State
Wisconsin
Kentucky
Kansas
Texas

While Texas looked dreadful playing up-tempo against UConn, I expect that they will play in Houston, which is a decisive advantage.  Just ask Syracuse how much they liked playing in Albany in 2003 or George Mason how much they enjoyed playing in DC in 2006.  The last time Texas made the Final 4, they had the luxury of playing their regional in state as well.  Illinois beat Arizona in the Elite 8 in Chicago.

First Round Action: Can All the Higher Seeds win?

Many people look at the performance of seeds individually in the NCAA Tournament.  However, before you look at that, it's equally important to understand how likely it is for ALL the respective seeds to win.

Look at this:

2 Seeds win 96% of their games.  However, since 1985, the probability that they all win is 84%.  It's happened every year since 2001, right before they went to the pod system.

3 seeds win 85% of their games, but the probability that they all win is only 48%!  The probability that 3 will win is 92%.

4 seeds win 79% of their games, but they all win only 28% of the time.

5 seeds win 66% of their games, but they all win only 12% of the time.

6 seeds win 69% of their games, but they all win only 20% of the time.  All the 11 seeds win only 4% of the time.

7 seeds win 64% of their games, but they all win only 12% of the time.  All the 10 seeds win only 4% of the time.

8 seeds win 46% of their games, but they all win only 8% of the time.  Interesting enough, all the 9 seeds win 16% of the time, meaning it is twice as likely that all the 9 seeds will win than all the 8 seeds.

We have looked at other probabilities like this and will share them in future postings.

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