We've been examining the output of the models and figuring out where the blaring opportunities are. We found a few.
BYU-Kansas State: It is really tough to pick BYU when K State will be playing in their own conference and you have such a strong SoS. BYU is stronger on paper, and the models need 1 mid-major in the elite 8. BYU is easily the best team to fit that need, given their productivity and they are playing in Salt Lake City.
Texas A&M-Utah State: Another Big 12 team against another team from Utah. Utah State did beat Ohio State a few years ago. Texas A&M's losses are all against legit teams for the most part.
Wisconsin-Kentucky: I really don't think this is much of a stretch, but the % of points from 3 from Wisconsin have to make you worry about Wisconsin picks.
ODU-Notre Dame: Which Notre Dame team shows up? The re-invented one since Luke's injury?
Duke-Villanova-Baylor: There are several model conflicts here. Duke is the best team on paper, but Baylor playing in Houston and Villanova's recent success make this the highest leverage pick in the tourney. Get this right, and you are in good shape. Miss it, and it could cost you money.
The only thing we've learned from the NIT is that you can expect the A-10 to do well.
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