We have seen some strong shifts in the model based on the first two nights of the NCAA.
First, the CAA and the A-10 are looking stronger.
Secondly, the MWC, Big Sky, Pac-10, Big East, and Big Ten are looking weaker.
By default, the Big 12 and SEC have moved up in many head-to-head match-ups.
BYU-Kansas State: now leans towards Kansas State. This does have ramifications on our Elite 8. Xavier is now in play to make the Elite 8 based on over-ride rules, rather than BYU.
Texas A&M has not surpassed Utah State in our models, but they are now much stronger against them. Easily the closest game in our model. If you are in Vegas, take the underdog regardless.
Vanderbilt is also looking stronger against Murray State, but this was an over-ride pick originally. We still like Vanderbilt head-to-head, but the long term bracket trends likes Murray State.
Thursday, March 18, 2010
The Eyeball Test - Where the models know, but you believe differently
We've been examining the output of the models and figuring out where the blaring opportunities are. We found a few.
BYU-Kansas State: It is really tough to pick BYU when K State will be playing in their own conference and you have such a strong SoS. BYU is stronger on paper, and the models need 1 mid-major in the elite 8. BYU is easily the best team to fit that need, given their productivity and they are playing in Salt Lake City.
Texas A&M-Utah State: Another Big 12 team against another team from Utah. Utah State did beat Ohio State a few years ago. Texas A&M's losses are all against legit teams for the most part.
Wisconsin-Kentucky: I really don't think this is much of a stretch, but the % of points from 3 from Wisconsin have to make you worry about Wisconsin picks.
ODU-Notre Dame: Which Notre Dame team shows up? The re-invented one since Luke's injury?
Duke-Villanova-Baylor: There are several model conflicts here. Duke is the best team on paper, but Baylor playing in Houston and Villanova's recent success make this the highest leverage pick in the tourney. Get this right, and you are in good shape. Miss it, and it could cost you money.
The only thing we've learned from the NIT is that you can expect the A-10 to do well.
BYU-Kansas State: It is really tough to pick BYU when K State will be playing in their own conference and you have such a strong SoS. BYU is stronger on paper, and the models need 1 mid-major in the elite 8. BYU is easily the best team to fit that need, given their productivity and they are playing in Salt Lake City.
Texas A&M-Utah State: Another Big 12 team against another team from Utah. Utah State did beat Ohio State a few years ago. Texas A&M's losses are all against legit teams for the most part.
Wisconsin-Kentucky: I really don't think this is much of a stretch, but the % of points from 3 from Wisconsin have to make you worry about Wisconsin picks.
ODU-Notre Dame: Which Notre Dame team shows up? The re-invented one since Luke's injury?
Duke-Villanova-Baylor: There are several model conflicts here. Duke is the best team on paper, but Baylor playing in Houston and Villanova's recent success make this the highest leverage pick in the tourney. Get this right, and you are in good shape. Miss it, and it could cost you money.
The only thing we've learned from the NIT is that you can expect the A-10 to do well.
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
Where we may be wrong and why
There are a couple of places where I am a little concerned with where we are going against long-term trends, but it is at such a granular level, it isn't statiscally significant.
That said, I would be remiss if I didn't tell you about these.
First, no 5 seeds to the Sweet 16. That hasn't happened since 1992 and it has only happened 8% of the time.
Secondly, We have 2 6 seeds. 2 or more 6 seeds have happened 40% of the time. One 6 seed has happened 10 out of 25 times.
Lastly, two 12 seeds has only happened once. A 12 and 13 has only happened once as well, so watch those 4-13 and 5-12 in the South and West like we are playing it.
Okay, now let's talk about some of our individual picks. One that that has caught our attention is that no team played their conference tourney in a dome, so this may adversely affect teams that rely heavily on the 3 pointer. Look at Duke. They really depend on the 3, and in 2001 their conference tourney was in the Georgia Dome and they won the NCAA (playing in Minneapolis).
Kentucky will play in the Carrier Dome which is a different kind of dome, but only 22% of their points come from 3. In contrast, Wisconsin gets 34% of their points from 3. This introduces higher risk with the Wisconsin pick. WVU gets 28.5% of their points from 3.
In the South (Houston), Duke gets 29.1% of their points from 3, compared to 28% for Villanova and 27.5% for Baylor.
Salt Lake (Syracuse, K State, BYU) is not in a dome.
That said, I would be remiss if I didn't tell you about these.
First, no 5 seeds to the Sweet 16. That hasn't happened since 1992 and it has only happened 8% of the time.
Secondly, We have 2 6 seeds. 2 or more 6 seeds have happened 40% of the time. One 6 seed has happened 10 out of 25 times.
Lastly, two 12 seeds has only happened once. A 12 and 13 has only happened once as well, so watch those 4-13 and 5-12 in the South and West like we are playing it.
Okay, now let's talk about some of our individual picks. One that that has caught our attention is that no team played their conference tourney in a dome, so this may adversely affect teams that rely heavily on the 3 pointer. Look at Duke. They really depend on the 3, and in 2001 their conference tourney was in the Georgia Dome and they won the NCAA (playing in Minneapolis).
Kentucky will play in the Carrier Dome which is a different kind of dome, but only 22% of their points come from 3. In contrast, Wisconsin gets 34% of their points from 3. This introduces higher risk with the Wisconsin pick. WVU gets 28.5% of their points from 3.
In the South (Houston), Duke gets 29.1% of their points from 3, compared to 28% for Villanova and 27.5% for Baylor.
Salt Lake (Syracuse, K State, BYU) is not in a dome.
Prioritized Upsets - The Trees and The Forest
FIRST ROUND
1. Old Dominion (11) over Notre Dame
2. Utah State (12) over Texas A&M
3. Ga Tech (10) over Oklahoma State
4. Northern Iowa (9) over UNLV
5. Florida State (9) over Gonzaga
6. St. Mary's (10) over Richmond
7. Missouri (10) over Clemson
Couple of comments here. First, we are taking Richmond over St. Mary's due to the translongitudinal stress disorder we expect St. Mary's to experience. Second, this only looks at match-ups, it does not consider long-term bracket trends. Third, we really don't consider 8-9 and 7-10 matchups upsets. Fourth, Missouri over Clemson is based on rules other than pure productivity margin, but we agree with the over-ride.
When you consider "The Forest" and what your composite bracket should look like, we would add these games:
1. UTEP (12) over Butler
2. Murray State (13) over Vanderbilt
3. Siena (13) over Purdue
We are not calling upsets for these four games, but you should look at them closely.
1. BYU-Florida
2. Marquette-Washington
3. San Diego-Tennessee
4. Xavier-Minnesota
So, officially, we are picking 5 true upsets and 5 of the 9 and 10 seeds. We feel you should pick 3 to 5 upsets. We were originally going to go with 3, but the committee did such a poor seeding job, we are moving this number up to 5. Concentrating your upsets in to these two brackets will have the least impact on your overall bracket integrity and improve your chances of winning.
SECOND ROUND
1. Marquette (6) over New Mexico
2. Xavier (6) over Pitt
3. BYU (7) over Kansas State
Again, those are the pure upsets we are picking (not big fans of BYU over K-State). Here are the upsets you should consider based on long-term bracket trends.
1. Utah State over Siena/Purdue
2. UTEP over Murray State
3. Murray State over UTEP
Purdue is a wild card here. They could win 2 games or they could lose early. If you simply evaluate their games since Hummel got hurt, Siena should win. Siena has also been to the tourney the last 3 years and beat Ohio State in Dayton. Murray State looks great on paper. UTEP looks a little better, and if both of those teams win their first round game, you won't lose any points here, but could go up big on your competition.
THIRD ROUND
1. Wisconsin (4) over Kentucky
2. BYU (7) over Xavier
BYU is playing in Salt Lake City and has better efficiency. We need one team from a mid-major to make our elite 8 based on long-term bracket trends. Wisconsin doesn't have the hype and the talent that Kentucky has, but they play a better brand of team basketball and the statistics support that. Wisconsin has been to a Final 4 before so that helps their cause. Also, Kentucky did not go to the tourney last year and there is only a 36% chance of a team that didn't go to the tourney last year to make the Final 4 the next year.
One other note. Baylor is statistically better than Villanova, and they are playing in Houston, but Villanova went to the Final 4 last year and was in the tourney last year, so the long-term bracket trends over-ride the statistics. This is a high leverage game if you enter multiple brackets.
ELITE 8
(4) Wisconsin over West Virginia
(2) Villanova over Duke
Watching Duke vs. Georgetown makes you think they will have issues with any Big East Team. They are fortunate to get one on a downward trajectory. Duke is the better team on paper, but the long-term bracket trends point us to Villanova. Wisconsin, surprisingly, is better than West Virginia in terms of productivity and they have many long-term bracket trends in their favor.
Championship: Kansas over Wisconsin
Later today, I will post about long-term bracket trends and how this year compares. The Final 4 and Elite 8 are nearly perfect with long-term trends. The Sweet 16 has all 4 1 seeds, 3 2 seeds, and 5 seeds lower than 6. For the first 2 rounds we show 34 games following seed (23 and 11). This number is slightly lower than trend so consider that when looking at our prioritized list and how deep to go.
1. Old Dominion (11) over Notre Dame
2. Utah State (12) over Texas A&M
3. Ga Tech (10) over Oklahoma State
4. Northern Iowa (9) over UNLV
5. Florida State (9) over Gonzaga
6. St. Mary's (10) over Richmond
7. Missouri (10) over Clemson
Couple of comments here. First, we are taking Richmond over St. Mary's due to the translongitudinal stress disorder we expect St. Mary's to experience. Second, this only looks at match-ups, it does not consider long-term bracket trends. Third, we really don't consider 8-9 and 7-10 matchups upsets. Fourth, Missouri over Clemson is based on rules other than pure productivity margin, but we agree with the over-ride.
When you consider "The Forest" and what your composite bracket should look like, we would add these games:
1. UTEP (12) over Butler
2. Murray State (13) over Vanderbilt
3. Siena (13) over Purdue
We are not calling upsets for these four games, but you should look at them closely.
1. BYU-Florida
2. Marquette-Washington
3. San Diego-Tennessee
4. Xavier-Minnesota
So, officially, we are picking 5 true upsets and 5 of the 9 and 10 seeds. We feel you should pick 3 to 5 upsets. We were originally going to go with 3, but the committee did such a poor seeding job, we are moving this number up to 5. Concentrating your upsets in to these two brackets will have the least impact on your overall bracket integrity and improve your chances of winning.
SECOND ROUND
1. Marquette (6) over New Mexico
2. Xavier (6) over Pitt
3. BYU (7) over Kansas State
Again, those are the pure upsets we are picking (not big fans of BYU over K-State). Here are the upsets you should consider based on long-term bracket trends.
1. Utah State over Siena/Purdue
2. UTEP over Murray State
3. Murray State over UTEP
Purdue is a wild card here. They could win 2 games or they could lose early. If you simply evaluate their games since Hummel got hurt, Siena should win. Siena has also been to the tourney the last 3 years and beat Ohio State in Dayton. Murray State looks great on paper. UTEP looks a little better, and if both of those teams win their first round game, you won't lose any points here, but could go up big on your competition.
THIRD ROUND
1. Wisconsin (4) over Kentucky
2. BYU (7) over Xavier
BYU is playing in Salt Lake City and has better efficiency. We need one team from a mid-major to make our elite 8 based on long-term bracket trends. Wisconsin doesn't have the hype and the talent that Kentucky has, but they play a better brand of team basketball and the statistics support that. Wisconsin has been to a Final 4 before so that helps their cause. Also, Kentucky did not go to the tourney last year and there is only a 36% chance of a team that didn't go to the tourney last year to make the Final 4 the next year.
One other note. Baylor is statistically better than Villanova, and they are playing in Houston, but Villanova went to the Final 4 last year and was in the tourney last year, so the long-term bracket trends over-ride the statistics. This is a high leverage game if you enter multiple brackets.
ELITE 8
(4) Wisconsin over West Virginia
(2) Villanova over Duke
Watching Duke vs. Georgetown makes you think they will have issues with any Big East Team. They are fortunate to get one on a downward trajectory. Duke is the better team on paper, but the long-term bracket trends point us to Villanova. Wisconsin, surprisingly, is better than West Virginia in terms of productivity and they have many long-term bracket trends in their favor.
Championship: Kansas over Wisconsin
Later today, I will post about long-term bracket trends and how this year compares. The Final 4 and Elite 8 are nearly perfect with long-term trends. The Sweet 16 has all 4 1 seeds, 3 2 seeds, and 5 seeds lower than 6. For the first 2 rounds we show 34 games following seed (23 and 11). This number is slightly lower than trend so consider that when looking at our prioritized list and how deep to go.
Monday, March 15, 2010
Models see only 4 Final Four Combinations Possible
From Most Likely to Least Likely:
Kansas, Syracuse, Wisconsin, Villanova: Combined Seed (8), Combined RPI (38) - two from one conference and one team from last year's Final 4
Kansas, Kansas State, Wisconsin, Duke: Combined Seed (8), Combined RPI (31) - two from one conference
Kansas, Syracuse, Wisconsin, Baylor: Combined Seed (9), Combined RPI (36)
Kansas, Syracuse, WVU, Duke: Combined Seed (5), Combined RPI (13)
Kansas, Syracuse, Wisconsin, Villanova: Combined Seed (8), Combined RPI (38) - two from one conference and one team from last year's Final 4
Kansas, Kansas State, Wisconsin, Duke: Combined Seed (8), Combined RPI (31) - two from one conference
Kansas, Syracuse, Wisconsin, Baylor: Combined Seed (9), Combined RPI (36)
Kansas, Syracuse, WVU, Duke: Combined Seed (5), Combined RPI (13)
Evaluating Opportunities by seed 11-15
3 seeds win 85% of their games, but the probability that they all win is only 48%! The probability that 3 will win is 92%.
The most likely upset is Montana over New Mexico, but we give that < 25% of happening.
4 seeds win 79% of their games, but they all win only 28% of the time.
Vanderbilt is vulnerable to Murray State. Murray State has a great FG% offense and defense.
We feel that Purdue is vulnerable to Siena. The Hummel injury and this being Siena's third straight appearance works for them.
5 seeds win 66% of their games, but they all win only 12% of the time.
Utah State has a better efficiency rating that Texas A&M, but Utah State not making the tournament last year works against them.
UTEP has the 5-12 Mid-Major vs. Mid-Major rule working for them.
Cornell is very efficient, but this is a first time appearance and they don't compare to Temple's Efficiency
6 seeds win 69% of their games, but they all win only 20% of the time. All the 11 seeds win only 4% of the time.
We feel that the 11 seeds are very strong relative to the 6 seeds and there will be multiple 11 seeds likely winning. This is the order that we prioritize the 11 seeds:
1) Old Dominion: Better efficiency - we are picking this upset straight up.
2) Marquette-Washington: Very close efficiency
3) Minnesota-Xavier: Very close efficiency
4) Tenn-SD State: Tenn has the best efficiency delta, and now SD plays on Thursday on the East Coast.
More later on the 7-10 and 8-9 matchups.
7 seeds win 64% of their games, but they all win only 12% of the time. All the 10 seeds win only 4% of the time. 8 seeds win 46% of their games, but they all win only 8% of the time. Interesting enough, all the 9 seeds win 16% of the time, meaning it is twice as likely that all the 9 seeds will win than all the 8 seeds.
The most likely upset is Montana over New Mexico, but we give that < 25% of happening.
4 seeds win 79% of their games, but they all win only 28% of the time.
Vanderbilt is vulnerable to Murray State. Murray State has a great FG% offense and defense.
We feel that Purdue is vulnerable to Siena. The Hummel injury and this being Siena's third straight appearance works for them.
5 seeds win 66% of their games, but they all win only 12% of the time.
Utah State has a better efficiency rating that Texas A&M, but Utah State not making the tournament last year works against them.
UTEP has the 5-12 Mid-Major vs. Mid-Major rule working for them.
Cornell is very efficient, but this is a first time appearance and they don't compare to Temple's Efficiency
6 seeds win 69% of their games, but they all win only 20% of the time. All the 11 seeds win only 4% of the time.
We feel that the 11 seeds are very strong relative to the 6 seeds and there will be multiple 11 seeds likely winning. This is the order that we prioritize the 11 seeds:
1) Old Dominion: Better efficiency - we are picking this upset straight up.
2) Marquette-Washington: Very close efficiency
3) Minnesota-Xavier: Very close efficiency
4) Tenn-SD State: Tenn has the best efficiency delta, and now SD plays on Thursday on the East Coast.
More later on the 7-10 and 8-9 matchups.
7 seeds win 64% of their games, but they all win only 12% of the time. All the 10 seeds win only 4% of the time. 8 seeds win 46% of their games, but they all win only 8% of the time. Interesting enough, all the 9 seeds win 16% of the time, meaning it is twice as likely that all the 9 seeds will win than all the 8 seeds.
The modeling begins
Here are the toughest games to model:
Midwest: Surprisingly, none.
West: Butler(5) vs. UTEP (12), Xavier (6) vs. Minnesota(11), BYU(7) vs. Florida (10)
East: Missouri (10) vs. Clemson(7), Marquette (6) vs. Washington (11)
South: Utah State (12) vs. Texas A&M (5), Purdue(4) vs. Siena(13), St. Mary's (10) vs. Richmond (7), Baylor vs. Villanova.
Couple of other things:
(1) The initial run shows only 3 first round upsets (Old Dominion, Utah State, and Siena; Siena is based on adjusted stats for Purdue, which is iffy). That is low, but we still have 3 more things to do before finalizing the bracket. Recall we don't count 7-10 or 8-9 games as upsets. For those match-ups. We like N. Iowa, Florida State as the 9 seed picks and Ga Tech as a 10 pick with lots to reconcile for the 7-10 games.
(2) If you are looking for a 12 or 13 to make the Sweet 16, focus your efforts on the West and South. The West in that pod only has one major team (Vandy). The South has a very under-rated Utah State vs. a very over-rated Texas A&M and an injured Purdue vs. perennial Siena who beat Ohio State last year.
(3) How tired will St. Mary's be against Richmond? San Diego St. vs. Tennessee? Both play in Providence on Thursday. Likely, one of those teams will be playing at 9am local after a LONG plane ride.
(4) No conference tournament was played in a dome this year.
(5) Baylor could be playing in Houston.
(6) Villanova is the only team with a chance of repeating to the Final 4 according to our models.
(7) West Virginia did not play at Syracuse this year.
Model should be finished tonight.
Midwest: Surprisingly, none.
West: Butler(5) vs. UTEP (12), Xavier (6) vs. Minnesota(11), BYU(7) vs. Florida (10)
East: Missouri (10) vs. Clemson(7), Marquette (6) vs. Washington (11)
South: Utah State (12) vs. Texas A&M (5), Purdue(4) vs. Siena(13), St. Mary's (10) vs. Richmond (7), Baylor vs. Villanova.
Couple of other things:
(1) The initial run shows only 3 first round upsets (Old Dominion, Utah State, and Siena; Siena is based on adjusted stats for Purdue, which is iffy). That is low, but we still have 3 more things to do before finalizing the bracket. Recall we don't count 7-10 or 8-9 games as upsets. For those match-ups. We like N. Iowa, Florida State as the 9 seed picks and Ga Tech as a 10 pick with lots to reconcile for the 7-10 games.
(2) If you are looking for a 12 or 13 to make the Sweet 16, focus your efforts on the West and South. The West in that pod only has one major team (Vandy). The South has a very under-rated Utah State vs. a very over-rated Texas A&M and an injured Purdue vs. perennial Siena who beat Ohio State last year.
(3) How tired will St. Mary's be against Richmond? San Diego St. vs. Tennessee? Both play in Providence on Thursday. Likely, one of those teams will be playing at 9am local after a LONG plane ride.
(4) No conference tournament was played in a dome this year.
(5) Baylor could be playing in Houston.
(6) Villanova is the only team with a chance of repeating to the Final 4 according to our models.
(7) West Virginia did not play at Syracuse this year.
Model should be finished tonight.
Monday, March 8, 2010
Our Models on Joe Lunardi's 3/8 Bracket
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
Sweet 16
(1) Kansas
(12) Ga Tech
(3) Pitt
(2) Ohio State
(1) Kentucky
(5) Maryland
(3) Michigan State
(2) West Virginia
(1) Duke
(5) Baylor
(3) Villanova
(7) Missouri
(1) Syracuse
(4) Wisconsin
(6) Georgetown
(2) Kansas State
1 seeds: 4
2 seeds: 3
3 seeds: 3
4 seeds: 1
5 seeds: 2
6 seeds: 1
7 seeds: 1
12 seeds: 1
52 cumulative seed total.
Elite 8: Kansas over Ohio State, Maryland over West Virginia, Duke over Missouri, Wisconsin over Kansas State (cumulative seeds = 24)
Championship: Kansas over Duke
Sweet 16
(1) Kansas
(12) Ga Tech
(3) Pitt
(2) Ohio State
(1) Kentucky
(5) Maryland
(3) Michigan State
(2) West Virginia
(1) Duke
(5) Baylor
(3) Villanova
(7) Missouri
(1) Syracuse
(4) Wisconsin
(6) Georgetown
(2) Kansas State
1 seeds: 4
2 seeds: 3
3 seeds: 3
4 seeds: 1
5 seeds: 2
6 seeds: 1
7 seeds: 1
12 seeds: 1
52 cumulative seed total.
Elite 8: Kansas over Ohio State, Maryland over West Virginia, Duke over Missouri, Wisconsin over Kansas State (cumulative seeds = 24)
Championship: Kansas over Duke
8 teams you should pick to your Sweet 16
Based on our rules-based decision engine, these teams look to be safe picks for your Sweet 16. Of course, there could be conflicts (these teams could play each other):
Kansas
Duke
Kentucky
Syracuse
Villanova
Wisconsin
Georgetown
Maryland
These teams are still on the radar, but aren't "safe" yet: Michigan State, Texas, Oklahoma State, Ohio State, and Louisville.
Kansas
Duke
Kentucky
Syracuse
Villanova
Wisconsin
Georgetown
Maryland
These teams are still on the radar, but aren't "safe" yet: Michigan State, Texas, Oklahoma State, Ohio State, and Louisville.
Monday, March 1, 2010
Updated Final 4 Projections
Syracuse over Kansas is the current pick for the Championship game.
The Final 4 candidates:
Syracuse
Kansas
Duke
Kentucky
Villanova
Georgetown
Wisconsin
with Michigan State, Ohio State, Maryland, and Texas just on the outside.
Duke has caught our attention with their offensive rebounding and we want to figure out why this is occurring.
The Final 4 candidates:
Syracuse
Kansas
Duke
Kentucky
Villanova
Georgetown
Wisconsin
with Michigan State, Ohio State, Maryland, and Texas just on the outside.
Duke has caught our attention with their offensive rebounding and we want to figure out why this is occurring.
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