Sweet 16 Segmentation

The Sweet 16 breakdown over the past 25 years looks like this:

There is a 92% chance of at least one 10 or higher seed in the Sweet 16.   There is a 64% chance of 2 or more.

There is a 96% chance of at least one 5 to 7 seed.  There is a 92% chance of at least 2.  There is a 64% chance of at least 3.  The mode is 5 (8 out of 25 years), but interestingly enough, only 8% of the time has there been 6 or more.

8 and 9 seeds making it to the Sweet 16 is very rare.  It has only happened 40% of the time and only 8% of the time do 2 make it.

In aggregate, 60% of the time you will 5-7 teams that are a 5 seed or higher in your Sweet 16.  16% of the time you have 2-4, and 24% of the time you will have 8 or 9.

The current 80% confidence band is 4-8.  When you look further at the change rate, last year we had 3 teams seeded 5th or lower make the Sweet 16.  84% of the time this number changes by 0 to 3 from the previous year.  So that opens a window of 0 to 6.

I am looking to have 5 or 6 teams seeded 5th or lower in my Sweet 16.  1 or 2 will be a 10 seed or higher and 3 or 4 will be a 5-7 seed.