Final 4 Probabilities

One thing that I've been reading about is how that since 1991, only one team has won the tournament without making it to the previous year's tournament (Syracuse, 2003).

That got me thinking more about my Final 4 probabilities.  Here is my collection:

Probability that:

Two teams are from one conference:  72%
One team from last year's Final 4:  72%
Probability that all the teams have an RPI <=22:  81%
Probability that all the teams are in the RPI Top 10:  19%
Probability that you will have 2 or more 1 seeds:  60%
Probability that you will have 3 or more 1 seeds:  16%

Here is what I just researched:

Probability that a team went to last year's tournament:  90%
Probability that one team in the Final 4 did not make last year's tournament:  36%

That last number is much higher than I would have anticipated.  However, knowing that numbers gives some hope to Georgetown and Kentucky, but this information would probably make you lean towards a:

Syracuse, Kansas are probably in.

Villanova and Michigan State are leading candidates for the 3rd slot.

Duke and Wisconsin lead for the 4th slot.  However, Duke is somewhat hurt by their high RPI.  The top 3 teams in the RPI have only made it once in the past 16 years, while 2 of the top 3 have made it 50% of the time.

Kentucky and Georgetown are still in consideration.